Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Placing My Bets in Nevada

Rick at The Next President Visits Nevada posted his guess-timate for the outcome of the '08 election so just in case anyone actually wonders or is confused, I thought I'd post my best guesses.

Sadly I think Rick is mostly correct...Giuliani is most likely the guy we have to beat and that is likely to be much more difficult than the pundits who are focused on the fundie-values voters might lead one to believe.

Most of the far right are more than happy to put their "values" on the back burner in exchange for what they believe is a tough-guy who will keep them safe. They're scared and they aren't real bright so someone they believe is more likely to "blow stuff up" is what they are looking for. Rudy fits their he-man schoolyard bully self-image.

Obviously I have chosen Richardson as my #1. Mostly because I do believe his past performance and credentials are the best of the bunch but also for another very important reason: he is the one most likely to be able to win a national election. Face it, even if every single registered Democrat loved would not be enough votes to win the country. We have to take the center.

Ok, the other candidates:

1. Clinton: I don't hate her, she is not a terrible candidate overall and we could do far worse but: what are the odds she can win the country? Slim to none. Very large, very strong "I hate Hillary" sentiment running through the mainstream and the hard left base has abandoned her....she has no solid ground. Not a chance in hell she could take on Giuliani.

2. Obama: my #2 choice. Smart, popular and populist. A bit too populist for my taste but hey, no candidate is perfect and I think he might be able to win. Maybe. It would be by a very slim margin if at all but I see at least a possibility. Might be able to go toe-to-toe with Rudykins.

3. Edwards: regardless of my personal views about him there is reality to contend with. Edwards will never win the country. It simply is not going to happen, America is not going to give him the love no matter how much his base loves him, not if every Dem in the country votes for him. Ok, maybe if all the Republican candidates died. Rudy would have him for brunch, smothered in a nice Alfredo sauce. Nominate him and say hello to another 4 years of right wing nutty goodness.

4. Biden: his time is past. Some of his ideas were their time. Their time is long gone and he has not kept up with changes. Always running a few feet behind the situation. He might be able to stand up to the Rudester IF he had popular support. Which he does not and is not ever likely to get.

5. Dodd and that other guy: do I even need to say anything? Never going to happen.

So there it is. I don't just want a candidate who agrees with my views on every single issue, I want one who is pretty much in line with what the Democratic party is supposed to stand for (which is essentially all of the current candidates) AND I want one who can win the country. If and when other or another candidate shows me he or she has the right stuff to make it so...I'm open to it.

We keep losing because we keep nominating candidates who will not play in middle America. How many ways on how many days do I have to say that? Liberal and progressive numbers are growing, slowly but surely but we are still far away from being a solid majority, we can't afford to discount the middle and sometimes that means having to act like adults and realize we cannot have our own way on every issue all of the time and right this minute. In that spirit, I will vote for whoever ultimately is our nominee and hope he/she wins. I just hope we can get our chit together and pick a winner for a change.


TomCat said...

NYM, your arguments are compelling. The one thing we have going for us is that almost anyine that we put up, stacks up favorably to almost anyone the GOP puts up.

On Hillary, she descended another notch in my estimation today by refusing to answer whether being gay or lesbian is immoral.

Not Your Mama said...

Oh, I agree all of our candidates are better than the GOP candidates! Which is why I will vote for whichever one wins the nomination.

Er, well, Giuliani is probably better than Kucinich ;).

I'm only pointing out that I'm only one person and more solidly a Democrat than the "majority in the middle". It isn't me who needs to be persuaded but them. I don't believe they'll bite on several of the candidates.

Featheriver said...

I thought your analysis of the various candidates was quite good also.

I'm still not decided. I like Richardson for the reasons you gave. But I also like Obama. And I don't find Edwards at all distasteful.

But I'm just not sure yet so I'll muddle along and see how it all shakes out.

BadTux said...

One thing to think about: The Democrats are not going to win the South. Heck, Edwards didn't even win his own home state of North Carolina last time out. So where are the Democrats going to get the electoral votes to win a national Presidential election?

Hint: 200,000 votes in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and we'd have President Kerry.

The Democrats need to persue a Western Strategy, and persue it big-time. F**k the South. Those losers deserve the Republicans.

- BT

Not Your Mama said...

Fer sure, the South is a lost cause though I think a moderate might be able to pull one or two states down that way.

NM easiest dem win, don't even have to bend over and kiss butts there. NV and CO, both tough states for us. As in very, very tough. NV it's all about the money, we have no values ;).

ryk said...

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Wesley Clark to get into the race.